resident Nick welcomed Rotarians and Guests. With PP Nigel's help, the microphones were flawless.

Winning Report from our April 28th Horse Race Night: It was great fellowship, and it could have been more fun if there were more Rotarians. Thanks to many great fellowships of attending Rotarians and guest, many of us won money.

Fellowship chairman Nico introduced the following guests:

Ms. Donna Leung, Ms. Wendy Hu, Mr Kevin Leung, Ms. Emily, Mr. Thomas Yeung, Mr. Hans Goetti, from Citibank. President Nick wondered that all the VP's were at our meeting who was making decision at Citibank.
Mr. Ernie Yiu, an architectural friend of President Nick.
Mr. Thomas Yeung, potential new member, guest of Rtn. Nico Kooji.

Rotarian Nico added that when we accept Thomas's applications our average age would plummet significantly. President Nick added that our average waistline would be reduced too.

Announcement:

May 7th: Conrad Hotel British Airways Playhouse Private Lives. Roughly 4 seats are still available on Thursday.

May 10th: Board Meeting. Details to be followed. Other members are welcomed.

May 21st: Annual Ball at the Hong Kong Country Club.

May 20th: Replaced by May 21st Annual Ball. Cancelled.

June 3rd: Dinner meeting at the Regent Hotel welcoming the visiting RI directors en route to Singapore.

June 1st: Replaced by June 3rd dinner meeting. Cancelled.

June 13-16th: 4 from our club has signed up to attend RI conference to be held at Singapore.

Rtn. Simon said our members were behaving generously contributing $860 raffle $360 total $1260.

Global Market Outlook and Implication of the Euro.

Program Chair Rtn. Bob introduced our speaker Mr. Hans Goetti as the Senior Investment Officer of Citibank Private Bank in Asia Pacific based in Singapore. Before joining Citibank, he has gained experience in asset management business in European, Japanese equity markets, and US for European, Japanese, Swiss banks. He began Citibank's careers in 1991 as a Senior Investment Advisor. He has appeared regularly on various CNBC programs.

Before coming to our Club, he has toured 5 other different Rotary Clubs. In Jan. 99 speaking at Rotary Hong Kong when Dow Jones Index at 9000, he had estimated that Dow Jones hitting 10,500 and Heng Sang Index above 13,000. At that time, most people were skeptical of his estimate. If you had acted on his advice, you would be very rich. Then the question is what next as echoed by our audiences

His long-term view 5-10 years is positive. He used the US interested rates 200 years as a reference. LT Bond yield declined significantly due to a major technical innovation.

Suez Canal is the first technical innovation benefiting economy. During 1860 to turn of 19th century, US Railroad system had improved US transportation as the second innovations. From 1920 to end of WWII, the third innovation of automobile further improved stocks and bond yield declined. Mr. Goetti noted that each innovation had a time delay for the technology to fully deployed in society. Furthermore, Mr. Goetti is predicting that computer and Internet will be the next technical innovation causing bond yield to decline, possibly below the 5.5% average 200 years.

Short Term: Economy has done well. Problem is valuation. The speaker used Dividend Discount Model to compare with the fair market value of SP500. [Ed: I have to give up how to explain this comparison. Too complex for your Bulletin Chairman.] In a sentence, Mr Goetti said stock market overvalued by 30%. On the other hand, the speaker has doubt on the current market risk premium. By looking at the long term demographics, the baby boomer of 45-49 age +/- 10 years baby boomers are active saver. But the younger demographic invested in stocks, not bonds. Then Mr. Goetti pulled out another research chart of Nikkei 225 and the Dow Jones. The chart clearly showed that DJI is lagging Nikkei for about 30 years. Dow shall hit 20000 by the year 2003 and beyond.

Europe: Economic & Monetary Union (EMU). Is about the same size of US in GDP, export, imports, and populations. The exception is that Europeans are lagging by about 10-20% of investing population.

Asia: now to medium term. In 1998 early October, Japanese yen fell 20% in 3 days. The government aim was to take out volatility to get rid of hedge funds which were make yen unstable. The policy was very successful. Now there is flow back of capital to Japan. Japan was suffering from deflation. But now the fear of deflation is gone. The psychology of Japanese investors is changing. Its OTC stocks are up 20%. Bond yield has move up to 2.x% expecting inflation. Nikkei is also up 20%.

At the end of his presentations, Mr. Goetti indicated that US equity should grow gradually. Part of Asia is recovering this year, and Japanese economy will follow.

Rtn. Peter Barrette thanked our speaker. Most of private bankers he knows give good lunch with bad news. Mr. Hans Goetti gave complex answers to our simple questions. According to Mr. Soro, Rtn. Peter cited that key to success in predicting investor's phys.

Internet Tip of the Week: Questions were asked many times about our web site. To setup up the web site like this one, the requirements are [in descending order of importance.]

Knowledgeable person to upload our information: PP Gaston w/ Rtn. Deborah.
Keep it regularly: Rtn. Deborah & Rtn. Bernie
Computer hardware: Fast modem 56k, good COLOR printer, 17" monitor will help.
Digital Camera: most camera > $2500.00 will give satisfactory photo on web up to 4" x 6".